Part Two of my in-depth plot and structure analysis of the mystery novel Fair Warning by Michael Connelly.
In Part One, I tried to explain where Connelly got the idea and how he fleshed characters out. Now, let’s see in detail how he developed the plot with its twists and turns. There’s a lot to learn.
This analysis contains writers alerts, to highlight strengths, and weaknesses alerts, to highlight weaknesses (not plot holes, guys, because Connelly never delivers plot holes…).
Fair Warning to the reader: It contains huge spoilers. If you didn’t read the novel and you plan to or if you simply don’t like spoilers, you should stop here.

THE INCITING INCIDENT
A fundamental step is to throw the hero into the story. How does McEvoy get involved in this story? Why will he, a Fair Warning journalist, find himself at the center of a thriller? Did he read an article on the gene market and decide to investigate? That would be weak. Something better is needed and Connelly chooses a classic situation: he puts his hero in danger.
Writer Alert: Putting the hero in danger and beating him hard throughout the story helps the reader be on his side, care for him, get passionate. In fact, Connelly will beat McEvoy multiple times throughout this novel.
McEvoy finds himself suspected of the murder committed by the serial killer in the first scene. In fact, the police go to see him, tell him that a girl, Tina Portrero, has been killed and that some clues lead to him: his phone number was among the victim's contacts and on her bedside table were his books on The Poet , the case that made him famous. He explains that he went out with the girl a year earlier and never saw her again, but the policemen let him know that they will keep an eye on him. So, McEvoy feels in danger and begins to investigate to save himself.
It is the so-called "inciting incident", the episode that opens the story. And Connelly makes it happen very soon, in the first twenty pages. It immediately gives pace to the story.
Weakness.Frankly, this "inciting incident" is not very convincing. Why do the police immediately target McEvoy so aggressively? Were the other contacts in the victim's address book taken into account? No other suspects are mentioned, and this seems odd. The police grill McEvoy just because the victim had his phone number and his books on the nightstand… that might happen in reality, but it seems a bit of a stretch.
Writer Alert: The way the hero enters the story is very important, you should find something solid, never give the impression that he is involved by chance or just because you need it. The reader must be one hundred percent convinced, must buy it right away. Otherwise, if the reader is doubtful since the beginning, he will carry the germ of doubt throughout the novel and will struggle to be fully involved.
THE INVESTIGATION
Connelly chooses a linear narrative: the story proceeds strictly in chronological order, without flashbacks, without time jumps. As if we personally follow the investigation in the wake of the journalists. A choice that shows how confident the author is of his characters and his plot, he doesn't need to go back and forth in time. And he doesn't even use a flashback. Not even one in the whole novel.
Writer Alert: It is indisputable that a linear story is easier to follow. This approach teaches us to use time jumps only if you really need them, not to cover holes or to amaze.
Connelly crafts a perfect procedural, which step by step moves the plot forward. He stuffs it with a love story and uses what the Scriptshadow website would call “a scene agitator”: McEvoy's colleague Emily, who stimulates him and undermines his certainties.
McEvoy is a good journalist who does ordinary things very well: he interrogates the victim's mother, discovers that the girl had used to a DNA testing service, GT23, out of curiosity, and se had found a half-sister. Here is the first step toward the world the of paid DNA testing.
At the same time McEvoy makes more brilliant, or at least less ordinary, moves: since the girl was killed by an unusual method, internal decapitation, he asks for help on a coroner's online forum, without revealing he’s a journalist. They answer him, which may seem unlikely to some, but to me it is absolutely plausible. Thanks to the forum, he discovers other victims of internal decapitation and investigating their family members he discovers that the other victims, all of them, had used to the same DNA testing service: GT23.
Thus the DNA trail opens definitively and McEvoy begins to suspect that someone has killed several women customers of paid DNA service. The question is: is there a serial killer around? Is the DNA service involved?
FIRST SUBPLOT: RACHEL
At this point, Connelly introduces the character of Rachel, former FBI agent and former McEvoy’s fiancee, with whom he will return together in the course of the story. McEvoy seeks her out to ask for help in the investigation.
Weakness.It is not clear what drives McEvoy to look for Rachel, what kind of help does he expect: does he take the opportunity to see her again because he still feels something? Weak. This aspect has more the flavor of a narrative ploy to expand the story with a new character and make the hero live a love story. But of course Connelly does not fail to integrate Rachel's character perfectly into the story: she will become the point of contact with the FBI.
THE INVESTIGATION CONTINUES
After visiting Rachel, McEvoy makes a brilliant move: he uses a research service to check whether GT23 has pending legal problems. He discovers that a former employee sued the company. The former employee explains that GT23 sells anonymous DNA to several companies, including one called Orange Nano, and he also reveals the existence of the Dirty Four gene.
McEvoy also discovers that William Orton, Orange Nano’s founder, has been accused of raping a woman.
AN UNEXPECTED TURN…
(End of Part Two; Part Three will be published next week, please subscribe to get it through my free newsletter).